Houston, Texas Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Houston?

Only 24 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 76 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. Few sellers are dropping their price. Asking prices are holding firm. Your discount will come from one stale listing, not from the whole market.

A typical Houston home takes 52 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 11% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago. There are 5,775 homes for sale in Houston. That is the most in ten years. It is 3 times the low of Apr 2022. Every one of them competes with the house you want.

What to do about it

• Start in 77039, 77012, and 77002. Those are the three softest ZIP codes in Houston.
• Filter for homes listed 60+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• In 77039 only 17 out of 100 homes have a buyer. You can lose a few offers there and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Houston?

Asking prices are 28.5% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Houston prices rose in only 67 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

Who will rent from you in Houston?

Most Houston households rent. 50 out of every 100 households are renters. That share has held steady for five years. 10.4% of homes sit empty. Tenants have options. Budget extra weeks of vacancy between leases.

The median Houston household earns $78,845 a year. Incomes here have grown 3.9% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 5.1 times the median income. That is the national middle. Neither cash flow nor appreciation is free here. A tenant on the median income can pay about $1,971 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast.

What numbers should you underwrite a Houston deal with?

• Price growth to assume — -2.3%/yr. 1 year: -6.5% · 5 years: -2.3% · ten years: +0.2%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Houston does without one. Underwrite closer to -2.3%. Measure growth per square foot. Houston median list price fell 2.4% a year, but price per square foot grew 0.2%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 2. A typical home takes 52 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 11% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 6. About 17% of homes on the Houston market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $207/sqft. The typical Houston listing shrank from 2,417 to 1,909 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 2% per sqft versus -21% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — +0%. The number of homes for sale barely moved in a year. Today's comps are a fair guide to your exit.
• Price-to-income ratio — 5.1×. A typical home costs 5.1 times the median income. That is the national middle. Neither cash flow nor appreciation is free here. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving.
• Tenant rent ceiling — $1,971/mo. 30% of the median household income of $78,845. Rents above this line shrink your tenant pool fast.

Is Houston a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Houston right now. 0.24 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 17% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 52 days to sell.

Are Houston home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 28.5% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Houston?

-2.3%/yr. 1 year: -6.5% · 5 years: -2.3% · ten years: +0.2%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Houston does without one. Underwrite closer to -2.3%. Measure growth per square foot. Houston median list price fell 2.4% a year, but price per square foot grew 0.2%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Houston?

A typical Houston home takes 52 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 11% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago.

Is Houston a renters' market or an owners' market?

Most Houston households rent. 50 out of every 100 households are renters. That share has held steady for five years. 10.4% of homes sit empty. Tenants have options. Budget extra weeks of vacancy between leases.

What rent can Houston tenants afford?

A tenant on the median income can pay about $1,971 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast. The median Houston household earns $78,845 a year.

Which Houston ZIP code has the most negotiating room?

77039. Only 17 out of 100 homes there have a buyer, 13% have cut their price, and a typical home takes 113 days to sell.