Dublin, California Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Dublin?

Only 34 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 66 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. Few sellers are dropping their price. Asking prices are holding firm. Your discount will come from one stale listing, not from the whole market.

A typical Dublin home takes 25 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 30+ days ago. There are 159 homes for sale in Dublin. That is the most in ten years. It is 14 times the low of Jan 2022. Every one of them competes with the house you want.

What to do about it

• Search Dublin homes listed 30+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Dublin?

Asking prices are 14.6% below their Dec 2023 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller. Dublin prices rose in only 75 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

The discount is already here. It is not getting bigger. Buy now while sellers are still weak. Waiting for a lower price stopped working a year ago.

What numbers should you underwrite a Dublin deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +2.3%/yr. 1 year: -2.3% · 5 years: +2.3% · ten years: +4.3%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Dublin does without one. Underwrite closer to +2.3%. Measure growth per square foot. Dublin median list price grew 3.4% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.3%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 1. A typical home takes 25 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 7. About 14% of homes on the Dublin market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $631/sqft. The average listing runs +12% above the median. Luxury homes skew it. Comp your own size class per sqft.
• Competition when you exit — +32%. That is how much the number of homes for sale grew in a year. Your resale will face a bigger crowd than today's comps did.

Is Dublin a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Dublin right now. 0.34 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 14% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 25 days to sell.

Are Dublin home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 14.6% below their Dec 2023 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller.

What price growth should I assume for Dublin?

+2.3%/yr. 1 year: -2.3% · 5 years: +2.3% · ten years: +4.3%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Dublin does without one. Underwrite closer to +2.3%. Measure growth per square foot. Dublin median list price grew 3.4% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.3%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Dublin?

A typical Dublin home takes 25 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 30+ days ago.