Tracy, California Housing Market

What stands out in Tracy?

• Asking price per square foot has moved -0.9% a year over five years: among the weakest five-year price growth of 765 tracked cities. Appreciation has been weak, so buy for cash flow.
• The median household earns $132,024 a year: among the highest incomes of 765 tracked cities. Tenants can carry higher rents.
• Prices were above the year before in 62% of months: among the least consistent price growth of 765 tracked cities. Price growth here is unreliable. Do not count on it.

Is housing keeping up with Tracy's growth?

The population in Tracy's ZIP codes grew 9.4% over five years, faster than 83% of the cities we track. Housing grew faster (+16.8%) than households (+15.7%). New supply is keeping up, so rents and prices have competition. Homes for sale are 26% above 2017–2019 at this time of year.

Is now a good time to buy in Tracy?

The median asking price is 18.3% below its May 2022 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 13.1% below the Apr 2022 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Tracy prices rose in only 69 of the last 111 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

How does Tracy compare with other California markets?

Ranked among the 141 California markets we track:

• Asking price: 61st cheapest of 141. Tracy is at $736,991. Closest: Davis and Inglewood.
• Buyer competition: 31st least competitive of 138. Tracy is at 0.33 buyers per home. Closest: Tustin and Novato.
• Time on market: 50th longest time on market of 141. Tracy is at a median of 54 days on market. Closest: Merced and Menifee.
• Price cuts: 30th most price cuts of 141. Tracy is at 23% of sellers cutting. Closest: Encinitas and Orange.

Who will rent from you in Tracy?

In Tracy, 34 out of every 100 households rent. Most own their home. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 35 in 100. Tracy added about 1,300 renter households in five years. Renter households here average 3.3 people. Families rent here. Buy bedrooms. Studios will sit.

The median Tracy household earns $132,024 a year. Incomes here have grown 5.7% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 5.6 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. At 30% of income, a tenant on the median income can pay about $3,301 a month.

To see what one Tracy address would rent for and cash flow, run it through the app.

How much can you negotiate in Tracy?

For every 100 homes still for sale, 33 are under contract. In 2017–2019 at this time of year it was 82. The rest are still waiting for a buyer. About 1 in 4 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start your offer below their new price.

The typical Tracy listing has been on the market 54 days. There are 268 homes for sale in Tracy. That is 7.1 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 283. Supply is growing against last year.

What to do about it

• Search Tracy homes listed 60+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

What numbers should you underwrite a Tracy deal with?

• Price growth to assume — -0.9%/yr. Tracy grew 4.9% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Tracy loses about 0.9% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices fell 2.8% over the last year. Use it for timing. The five-year rate is the better guide.
• Competition when you exit — +8%. Homes for sale in Tracy are up 8% on last year, so your resale faces more competition than today's comps did.

Read how population change affects rentals and how we read these numbers, then run the numbers on a deal.

What is the median home price in Tracy?

The median asking price in Tracy is about $737,000 as of Sep 2026, down 8.7% from a year ago. The typical listing is 7% smaller than a year ago, and asking price per square foot is down 2.8%. So the size of homes on the market explains much of the drop. This is the asking price on homes listed for sale. Sites that report sold prices or estimated home values will show a different number. Our Tracy figures cover the 5 ZIP codes with a Tracy mailing address, which can reach past city limits.

Is Tracy a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Buyers have more room in Tracy than usual. We compare Tracy with 2017–2019 at this time of year: there are 33 pending sales per 100 listings, against 82 then; the typical listing has been up 42% more days; there are 26% more homes for sale.

Are Tracy home prices going up or down?

The median asking price is 18.3% below its May 2022 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 13.1% below the Apr 2022 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What is the best month to buy a house in Tracy?

Across 9 full years, Tracy asking prices ran lowest in February, about 3.7% below the year's average. They peaked in July. The most homes for sale show up in August, about 26% above the yearly average.

Are there more homes for sale in Tracy than before the pandemic?

Yes. There are 268 homes for sale, 26% more than in 2017–2019 at this time of year.

What is the fair market rent in Tracy?

HUD's fiscal year 2026 fair market rent for San Joaquin County is $1,742 a month for 2 bedrooms and $2,423 for 3 bedrooms. The figures include tenant-paid utilities and cover the whole county.