Merced, California Housing Market

Is housing keeping up with Merced's growth?

The population in Merced's ZIP codes grew 9.0% over five years, faster than 82% of the cities we track. Households (+9.4%) and housing (+9.5%) grew in step. Homes for sale are 2% above 2017–2019 at this time of year.

How does Merced compare with other California markets?

Ranked among the 141 California markets we track:

• Asking price: 6th cheapest of 141. Merced is at $419,369. Closest: Tulare and Fresno.
• Buyer competition: 69th most competitive of 138. Merced is at 0.42 buyers per home. Closest: Lancaster and San Marcos.
• Time on market: 51st longest time on market of 141. Merced is at a median of 54 days on market. Closest: Ontario and Tracy.
• Price cuts: 58th most price cuts of 141. Merced is at 20% of sellers cutting. Closest: Oakley and Madera.

Is now a good time to buy in Merced?

The median asking price is 10.7% below its May 2024 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 4.2% below the Aug 2024 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller. Merced prices have risen in 79 of the last 111 months. Drops here have been short and shallow. Buying in a slow month has rarely hurt a long hold.

This market is turning. Which way is not settled yet. Check the monthly numbers above before you commit.

Who will rent from you in Merced?

Most Merced households rent. 50 out of every 100 households are renters. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 55 in 100. Renter households here average 3.2 people. Families rent here. Buy bedrooms. Studios will sit.

The median Merced household earns $65,219 a year. Incomes here have grown 5.9% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 6.4 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. At 30% of income, a tenant on the median income can pay about $1,630 a month.

To see what one Merced address would rent for and cash flow, run it through the app.

How much can you negotiate in Merced?

For every 100 homes still for sale, 42 are under contract. In 2017–2019 at this time of year it was 67. The rest are still waiting for a buyer. About 1 in 5 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start your offer below their new price.

The typical Merced listing has been on the market 54 days. There are 234 homes for sale in Merced. That is 3.8 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 311. Supply is growing against last year.

What to do about it

• Judge each listing on its own.
• Homes listed 60+ days ago with a price cut are where your discount is.
• Fresh, well-priced homes will not move on price. Do not waste offers on them.

What numbers should you underwrite a Merced deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +2.6%/yr. Merced grew 6.3% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Merced grows about 2.6% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices rose 1.2% over the last year. Use it for timing. The five-year rate is the better guide.
• Competition when you exit — +7%. Homes for sale in Merced are up 7% on last year, so your resale faces more competition than today's comps did.

Read how population change affects rentals and how we read these numbers, then run the numbers on a deal.

What is the median home price in Merced?

The median asking price in Merced is about $419,000 as of Sep 2026, down 1.7% from a year ago. This is the asking price on homes listed for sale. Sites that report sold prices or estimated home values will show a different number. Our Merced figures cover the 5 ZIP codes with a Merced mailing address, which can reach past city limits.

Is Merced a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Neither side has the upper hand in Merced right now. We compare Merced with 2017–2019 at this time of year: there are 42 pending sales per 100 listings, against 67 then; the typical listing has been up 12% more days; 20% of sellers have cut their price, against 19% then.

Are Merced home prices going up or down?

The median asking price is 10.7% below its May 2024 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 4.2% below the Aug 2024 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller.

What is the best month to buy a house in Merced?

Across 9 full years, Merced asking prices ran lowest in January, about 5.2% below the year's average. They peaked in July. The most homes for sale show up in October, about 12% above the yearly average.

Are there more homes for sale in Merced than before the pandemic?

About the same. There are 234 homes for sale, 2% more than in 2017–2019 at this time of year.

What is the fair market rent in Merced?

HUD's fiscal year 2026 fair market rent for Merced County is $1,503 a month for 2 bedrooms and $2,067 for 3 bedrooms. The figures include tenant-paid utilities and cover the whole county.