Murrieta, California Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Murrieta?

Only 41 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 59 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. About 1 in 5 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start below their new price, not their old one.

A typical Murrieta home takes 52 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago. There are 404 homes for sale in Murrieta. That is 3.9 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 615. Supply is steady against last year.

What to do about it

• Search Murrieta homes listed 60+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Murrieta?

Asking prices are 6.6% below their Feb 2025 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Murrieta prices have risen in 86 of the last 108 months. Drops here have been short and shallow. Buying in a slow month has rarely hurt a long hold.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

What numbers should you underwrite a Murrieta deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +4.2%/yr. 1 year: -1.6% · 5 years: +4.2% · ten years: +6.1%. The five-year and ten-year rates agree. That is a durable trend, not a boom artifact. It is a fair long-run input. Measure growth per square foot. Murrieta median list price grew 4.7% a year, but price per square foot grew 6.1%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 2. A typical home takes 52 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 5. About 19% of homes on the Murrieta market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $321/sqft. The typical Murrieta listing shrank from 2,900 to 2,452 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 80% per sqft versus 58% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — +0%. The number of homes for sale barely moved in a year. Today's comps are a fair guide to your exit.

Is Murrieta a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Murrieta right now. 0.41 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 19% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 52 days to sell.

Are Murrieta home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 6.6% below their Feb 2025 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Murrieta?

+4.2%/yr. 1 year: -1.6% · 5 years: +4.2% · ten years: +6.1%. The five-year and ten-year rates agree. That is a durable trend, not a boom artifact. It is a fair long-run input. Measure growth per square foot. Murrieta median list price grew 4.7% a year, but price per square foot grew 6.1%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Murrieta?

A typical Murrieta home takes 52 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago.