Morgan Hill, California Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Morgan Hill?

Only 50 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 50 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. Few sellers are dropping their price. Asking prices are holding firm. Your discount will come from one stale listing, not from the whole market.

A typical Morgan Hill home takes 41 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 24% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago. There are 112 homes for sale in Morgan Hill. That is 5.6 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 130. Supply is growing against last year.

What to do about it

• Search Morgan Hill homes listed 60+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Morgan Hill?

Asking prices are 15.2% below their Feb 2024 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Morgan Hill prices rose in only 74 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

What numbers should you underwrite a Morgan Hill deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +1.4%/yr. 1 year: -5.3% · 5 years: +1.4% · ten years: +4.1%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Morgan Hill does without one. Underwrite closer to +1.4%. Measure growth per square foot. Morgan Hill median list price grew 2.9% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.1%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 2. A typical home takes 41 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 24% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 6. About 18% of homes on the Morgan Hill market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $592/sqft. The typical Morgan Hill listing shrank from 2,607 to 2,247 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 49% per sqft versus 33% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — +9%. That is how much the number of homes for sale grew in a year. Your resale will face a bigger crowd than today's comps did.

Is Morgan Hill a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Morgan Hill right now. 0.50 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 18% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 41 days to sell.

Are Morgan Hill home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 15.2% below their Feb 2024 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Morgan Hill?

+1.4%/yr. 1 year: -5.3% · 5 years: +1.4% · ten years: +4.1%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Morgan Hill does without one. Underwrite closer to +1.4%. Measure growth per square foot. Morgan Hill median list price grew 2.9% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.1%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Morgan Hill?

A typical Morgan Hill home takes 41 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 24% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago.