Scottsdale, Arizona Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Scottsdale?

Only 33 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 67 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. About 1 in 4 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start below their new price, not their old one.

A typical Scottsdale home takes 78 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 6% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago. There are 2,229 homes for sale in Scottsdale. That is 4.7 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 3,253. Supply is steady against last year.

What to do about it

• Start in 85251, 85266, and 85250. Those are the three softest ZIP codes in Scottsdale.
• Filter for homes listed 90+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• In 85251 only 22 out of 100 homes have a buyer. You can lose a few offers there and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Scottsdale?

Asking prices are 24.9% below their Feb 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Scottsdale prices have risen in 93 of the last 108 months. Drops here have been short and shallow. Buying in a slow month has rarely hurt a long hold.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

Who will rent from you in Scottsdale?

In Scottsdale, 31 out of every 100 households rent. Most own their home. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 32 in 100. Renter households average 1.8 people. Singles and couples rent here. Two bedrooms beat four.

Households grew 3% in five years. The housing stock grew 1%. Demand is outrunning supply. 14.3% of homes sit empty. Tenants have options. Budget extra weeks of vacancy between leases.

The median Scottsdale household earns $115,115 a year. Incomes here have grown 4.4% a year since 2019. Incomes and home prices are rising in step. A typical home costs 10.2 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,878 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast.

That is the market, not your address. Run an address through the app to see its rent estimate and cash flow.

What numbers should you underwrite a Scottsdale deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +3.5%/yr. Scottsdale grew 6.9% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Scottsdale grows about 3.5% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices fell 2.8% over the last year. That is a timing signal, not a trend.
• Months of carrying cost — 3. A typical home takes 78 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 6% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 4. About 25% of homes on the Scottsdale market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $469/sqft. The typical Scottsdale listing shrank from 2,856 to 2,320 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 94% per sqft versus 73% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — -1%. The number of homes for sale barely moved in a year. Today's comps are a fair guide to your exit.
• Price-to-income ratio — 10.2×. A typical home costs 10.2 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. Incomes and home prices are rising in step.
• Tenant rent ceiling — $2,878/mo. 30% of the median household income of $115,115. Rents above this line shrink your tenant pool fast.

Is Scottsdale a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Scottsdale right now. 33 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 25% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 78 days to sell.

Are Scottsdale home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 24.9% below their Feb 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Scottsdale?

Assume +3.5% a year. Scottsdale grew 6.9% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Scottsdale grows about 3.5% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices fell 2.8% over the last year. That is a timing signal, not a trend.

How fast are homes selling in Scottsdale?

A typical Scottsdale home takes 78 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 6% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago.

Is Scottsdale a renters' market or an owners' market?

In Scottsdale, 31 out of every 100 households rent. Most own their home. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 32 in 100. 14.3% of homes sit empty. Tenants have options. Budget extra weeks of vacancy between leases.

What rent can Scottsdale tenants afford?

A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,878 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast. The median Scottsdale household earns $115,115 a year.

Which Scottsdale ZIP code has the most negotiating room?

85251. Only 22 out of 100 homes there have a buyer. 30% of sellers there have cut their price, and a typical home takes 85 days to sell.