San Marcos, Texas Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in San Marcos?

Only 31 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 69 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. About 1 in 4 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start below their new price, not their old one.

A typical San Marcos home takes 73 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 40% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago. There are 430 homes for sale in San Marcos. That is 7.0 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 461. Supply is shrinking against last year.

What to do about it

• Search San Marcos homes listed 90+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in San Marcos?

Asking prices are 32.4% below their Nov 2021 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. San Marcos prices rose in only 70 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

What numbers should you underwrite a San Marcos deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +1.0%/yr. 1 year: -6.5% · 5 years: +1.0% · ten years: +4.0%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what San Marcos does without one. Underwrite closer to +1.0%. Measure growth per square foot. San Marcos median list price grew 1.2% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.0%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 3. A typical home takes 73 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 40% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 4. About 24% of homes on the San Marcos market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $203/sqft. The typical San Marcos listing shrank from 2,338 to 1,800 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 47% per sqft versus 12% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — -7%. That is how much the number of homes for sale shrank in a year. Your resale will face a smaller crowd than today's comps did.

Is San Marcos a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in San Marcos right now. 0.31 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 24% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 73 days to sell.

Are San Marcos home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 32.4% below their Nov 2021 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for San Marcos?

+1.0%/yr. 1 year: -6.5% · 5 years: +1.0% · ten years: +4.0%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what San Marcos does without one. Underwrite closer to +1.0%. Measure growth per square foot. San Marcos median list price grew 1.2% a year, but price per square foot grew 4.0%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in San Marcos?

A typical San Marcos home takes 73 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 40% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago.