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Prices, inventory, and demand — distilled every month into one clear verdict: buyer’s market or seller’s. The investor’s read, before you make an offer.
The median asking price in Modesto is about $481,000 as of Sep 2026, about the same as a year ago. That is the asking price on listed homes, so sold-price and home-value sites show different numbers (why).
Only on the right house. Neither side has the upper hand in Modesto right now. The signals split. Compared with 2017–2019 at this time of year, 17% of sellers have cut their price, against 23% then, but there are 49 pending sales per 100 listings, against 83 then. The market will not hand you a discount. You have to find it in one specific listing.
Modesto asking prices per square foot were above the year before in 84% of months since the data starts. Within a year, the cheapest and priciest months differ by about 5.6%. That is bigger than the yearly trend, so timing your purchase matters here. Nothing in Modesto's numbers is far from its own normal. Your return comes from the property and the price you negotiate.
The median asking price is 4.2% below its Jun 2023 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller. Modesto prices have risen in 93 of the last 111 months. Drops here have been short and shallow. Buying in a slow month has rarely hurt a long hold.
This market is turning. Which way is not settled yet. Check the monthly numbers above before you commit.
Across 9 full years, Modesto asking prices ran lowest in February, about 3.7% below the year's average. They peaked in December. The most homes for sale show up in October, about 16% above the yearly average. Shop in October for choice, and expect the softest asking prices in February.
Ranked among the 141 California markets we track:
For every 100 homes still for sale, 49 are under contract. In 2017–2019 at this time of year it was 83. The rest are still waiting for a buyer. Few sellers are dropping their price. Asking prices are holding firm. Your discount will come from one stale listing.
The typical Modesto listing has been on the market 39 days. That is 25% shorter than a year ago. There are 383 homes for sale in Modesto. That is 3.1 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 557. Supply is growing against last year.
Read how rent-to-price works and how we read these numbers, then run the numbers on a deal.
The median asking price in Modesto is about $481,000 as of Sep 2026, about the same as a year ago. This is the asking price on homes listed for sale. Sites that report sold prices or estimated home values will show a different number. Our Modesto figures cover the 10 ZIP codes with a Modesto mailing address, which can reach past city limits.
Neither side has the upper hand in Modesto right now. We compare Modesto with 2017–2019 at this time of year: there are 49 pending sales per 100 listings, against 83 then; 17% of sellers have cut their price, against 23% then; there are 15% fewer homes for sale.
The median asking price is 4.2% below its Jun 2023 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller.
95354. Only 45 homes under contract for every 100 still for sale. 30% of sellers there have cut their price, and the typical listing has been up 46 days.
Assume +2.1% a year. Modesto grew 5.8% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Modesto grows about 2.1% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices were flat over the last year.
HUD's fiscal year 2026 fair market rent for Stanislaus County is $1,758 a month for 2 bedrooms and $2,442 for 3 bedrooms. The figures include tenant-paid utilities and cover the whole county.
ZIP 95350 is on both lists. That is rare. It is the one place in Modesto where leverage and growth overlap.
| ZIP | $/sqft, 2 yrs | $/sqft now | Buyers per home | For sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95356 | +1.1% | $294 | 0.41 | 63 |
| 95350 | +0.6% | $311 | 0.50 | 81 |
| 95354 | -0.1% | $318 | 0.45 | 37 |
| 95351 | -0.7% | $311 | 0.69 | 30 |
| 95358 | -1.3% | $333 | 0.46 | 34 |
Computed from each ZIP's own ten-year history. ZIPs with fewer than 10 homes for sale are excluded: a median across a handful of listings is noise, not a signal.
Modesto has ten ZIP codes. Each links to its live market dashboard.
Closest matches on asking price, price per square foot, time on market, buyer demand, and price cuts.
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