Manteca, California Housing Market

What stands out in Manteca?

• Asking price per square foot has moved +0.0% a year over five years: among the weakest five-year price growth of 765 tracked cities. Appreciation has been weak, so buy for cash flow.
• Population is up 13.7% over five years: among the fastest population growth of 765 tracked cities. Growth brings tenants and buyers.

Is housing keeping up with Manteca's growth?

The population in Manteca's ZIP codes grew 13.7% over five years, faster than 90% of the cities we track. Households (+10.0%) and housing (+10.0%) grew in step. Homes for sale are 35% above 2017–2019 at this time of year.

Is now a good time to buy in Manteca?

The median asking price is 16.5% below its Apr 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Manteca prices have risen in 80 of the last 111 months. Drops here have been short and shallow. Buying in a slow month has rarely hurt a long hold.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

How does Manteca compare with other California markets?

Ranked among the 141 California markets we track:

• Asking price: 41st cheapest of 141. Manteca is at $604,154. Closest: Vacaville and Lodi.
• Buyer competition: 22nd most competitive of 138. Manteca is at 0.51 buyers per home. Closest: Lake Elsinore and Whittier.
• Time on market: 48th shortest time on market of 141. Manteca is at a median of 46 days on market. Closest: Rancho Cucamonga and Santa Maria.
• Price cuts: 52nd most price cuts of 141. Manteca is at 21% of sellers cutting. Closest: Apple Valley and Long Beach.

When do Manteca prices dip?

Across 9 full years, Manteca asking prices ran lowest in January, about 3.5% below the year's average. They peaked in August. The most homes for sale show up in September, about 20% above the yearly average. Shop in September for choice, and expect the softest asking prices in January.

Who will rent from you in Manteca?

In Manteca, 28 out of every 100 households rent. Most own their home. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 38 in 100. Manteca lost about 2,100 renter households in five years. Renter households here average 3.1 people. Families rent here. Buy bedrooms. Studios will sit.

The median Manteca household earns $102,175 a year. Incomes here have grown 7.0% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 5.9 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. At 30% of income, a tenant on the median income can pay about $2,554 a month.

To see what one Manteca address would rent for and cash flow, run it through the app.

What numbers should you underwrite a Manteca deal with?

• Price growth to assume — 0.0%/yr. Manteca grew 4.3% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Manteca prices are flat. Assume no growth. Prices fell 2.4% over the last year. Use it for timing. The five-year rate is the better guide.

Read how population change affects rentals and how we read these numbers, then run the numbers on a deal.

What is the median home price in Manteca?

The median asking price in Manteca is about $604,000 as of Sep 2026, down 3.5% from a year ago. This is the asking price on homes listed for sale. Sites that report sold prices or estimated home values will show a different number. Our Manteca figures cover the 2 ZIP codes with a Manteca mailing address, which can reach past city limits.

Is Manteca a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Buyers have more room in Manteca than usual. We compare Manteca with 2017–2019 at this time of year: there are 51 pending sales per 100 listings, against 79 then; there are 35% more homes for sale; the typical listing has been up 25% more days.

Are Manteca home prices going up or down?

The median asking price is 16.5% below its Apr 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

Are there more homes for sale in Manteca than before the pandemic?

Yes. There are 228 homes for sale, 35% more than in 2017–2019 at this time of year.

What is the fair market rent in Manteca?

HUD's fiscal year 2026 fair market rent for San Joaquin County is $1,742 a month for 2 bedrooms and $2,423 for 3 bedrooms. The figures include tenant-paid utilities and cover the whole county.