Malibu, California Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Malibu?

Only 7 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 93 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. Few sellers are dropping their price. Asking prices are holding firm. Your discount will come from one stale listing, not from the whole market.

A typical Malibu home takes 80 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 8% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago. There are 318 homes for sale in Malibu. That is the most in ten years. It is 4 times the low of Jan 2022. Every one of them competes with the house you want.

What to do about it

• Search Malibu homes listed 90+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Malibu?

Asking prices are 28.3% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Malibu prices rose in only 69 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

What numbers should you underwrite a Malibu deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +1.7%/yr. 1 year: -0.2% · 5 years: +1.7% · ten years: +3.5%. The five-year and ten-year rates agree. That is a durable trend, not a boom artifact. It is a fair long-run input. Measure growth per square foot. Malibu median list price grew 2.9% a year, but price per square foot grew 3.5%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 3. A typical home takes 80 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 8% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 13. About 7% of homes on the Malibu market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $1,649/sqft. The average listing runs +63% above the median. Luxury homes skew it. Comp your own size class per sqft.
• Competition when you exit — +7%. That is how much the number of homes for sale grew in a year. Your resale will face a bigger crowd than today's comps did.

Is Malibu a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Malibu right now. 0.07 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 7% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 80 days to sell.

Are Malibu home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 28.3% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Malibu?

+1.7%/yr. 1 year: -0.2% · 5 years: +1.7% · ten years: +3.5%. The five-year and ten-year rates agree. That is a durable trend, not a boom artifact. It is a fair long-run input. Measure growth per square foot. Malibu median list price grew 2.9% a year, but price per square foot grew 3.5%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Malibu?

A typical Malibu home takes 80 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 8% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago.