Austin, Texas Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Austin?

Only 27 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 73 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. About 1 in 4 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start below their new price, not their old one.

A typical Austin home takes 62 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 9% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago. There are 4,558 homes for sale in Austin. That is 8.9 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 5,330. Supply is shrinking against last year.

What to do about it

• Start in 78702, 78717, and 78703. Those are the three softest ZIP codes in Austin.
• Filter for homes listed 90+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• In 78702 only 16 out of 100 homes have a buyer. You can lose a few offers there and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Austin?

Asking prices are 25.3% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. Austin prices rose in only 69 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

There is no rush. Prices are still coming down. Watch the homes you like. Come back after they cut. Let the seller move first.

Who will rent from you in Austin?

Most Austin households rent. 52 out of every 100 households are renters. The renter share is growing. Five years ago it was 50 in 100. Austin added about 48,000 renter households in five years. Renter households average 1.9 people. Singles and couples rent here. Two bedrooms beat four.

Households grew 22% in five years. The housing stock grew 19%. Demand is outrunning supply. Just 5.5% of homes sit empty. A well-priced rental fills fast here.

The median Austin household earns $107,996 a year. Incomes here have grown 5.6% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 6.6 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,700 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast.

That is the market, not your address. Run an address through the app to see its rent estimate and cash flow.

What numbers should you underwrite an Austin deal with?

• Price growth to assume — -1.4%/yr. Austin grew 4.6% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Austin loses about 1.4% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices fell 6.6% over the last year. That is a timing signal, not a trend.
• Months of carrying cost — 3. A typical home takes 62 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance. It is 9% slower than a year ago.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 4. About 26% of homes on the Austin market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $379/sqft. The typical Austin listing shrank from 2,641 to 1,986 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 56% per sqft versus 17% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — -14%. That is how much the number of homes for sale shrank in a year. Your resale will face a smaller crowd than today's comps did.
• Price-to-income ratio — 6.6×. A typical home costs 6.6 times the median income. Most locals cannot buy. That keeps rental demand deep. It also caps the rent they can pay. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving.
• Tenant rent ceiling — $2,700/mo. 30% of the median household income of $107,996. Rents above this line shrink your tenant pool fast.

Is Austin a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Austin right now. 27 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 26% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 62 days to sell.

Are Austin home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 25.3% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for Austin?

Assume -1.4% a year. Austin grew 4.6% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, Austin loses about 1.4% a year. That is the number to type in. Prices fell 6.6% over the last year. That is a timing signal, not a trend.

How fast are homes selling in Austin?

A typical Austin home takes 62 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 9% slower than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 90+ days ago.

Is Austin a renters' market or an owners' market?

Most Austin households rent. 52 out of every 100 households are renters. The renter share is growing. Five years ago it was 50 in 100. Just 5.5% of homes sit empty. A well-priced rental fills fast here.

What rent can Austin tenants afford?

A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,700 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast. The median Austin household earns $107,996 a year.

Which Austin ZIP code has the most negotiating room?

78702. Only 16 out of 100 homes there have a buyer. 28% of sellers there have cut their price, and a typical home takes 75 days to sell.