San Rafael, California Housing Market

What stands out in San Rafael?

• Homes for sale are down 41% on last year: among the sharpest inventory declines of 765 tracked cities. Supply is shrinking, which shifts leverage to sellers.
• Asking prices swing about 27.8% between the cheapest and priciest months: among the biggest seasonal price swings of 765 tracked cities. Timing your purchase within the year matters here.
• Asking price per square foot is down 9.6% on the year: among the fastest-falling asking prices per square foot of 765 tracked cities. Falling asking prices give you room to offer below list.

How far have San Rafael prices fallen?

Asking price per square foot in San Rafael is 11.6% below its Jul 2022 high and down 9.6% over the last year. Prices were above the year before in 65% of months since the data starts, so drops here have not always reversed quickly. 11% of sellers have cut their price. Underwrite with no price growth for now and let the seller carry the next cut.

Is now a good time to buy in San Rafael?

The median asking price is 25.4% below its May 2020 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 11.6% below the Jul 2022 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower. San Rafael prices rose in only 72 of the last 111 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

This market is turning. Which way is not settled yet. Check the monthly numbers above before you commit.

How much can you negotiate in San Rafael?

For every 100 homes still for sale, 42 are under contract. In 2017–2019 at this time of year it was 31. The rest are still waiting for a buyer. Few sellers are dropping their price. Your discount will come from one stale listing.

San Rafael listings spend a median 43 days on the market. That is 13% longer than a year ago. There are 103 homes for sale in San Rafael. That is 2.7 times the tightest month on record, but below the peak of 176. Supply is shrinking against last year.

What to do about it

• Judge each listing on its own.
• Homes listed 60+ days ago with a price cut are where your discount is.
• Fresh, well-priced homes will not move on price. Do not waste offers on them.

When do San Rafael prices dip?

Across 9 full years, San Rafael asking prices ran lowest in February, about 16.5% below the year's average. They peaked in September. The most homes for sale show up in October, about 28% above the yearly average. Shop in October for choice, and expect the softest asking prices in February.

What is the fair market rent in San Rafael?

HUD sets one fair market rent for Marin County. For fiscal year 2026:

• 1 bedroom: $2,977 a month. Up 7% on last year, up 64% since FY2016.
• 2 bedrooms: $3,604 a month. Up 9% on last year, up 57% since FY2016.
• 3 bedrooms: $4,604 a month. Up 11% on last year, up 54% since FY2016.
• 4 bedrooms: $4,772 a month. Up 8% on last year, up 34% since FY2016.

The figures include tenant-paid utilities and apply to all of Marin County, so one home's rent can sit well above or below them. See fair market rent by city.

What numbers should you underwrite a San Rafael deal with?

• Price growth to assume — -0.4%/yr. San Rafael grew 1.8% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, San Rafael prices are flat. Assume no growth. Prices fell 9.6% over the last year. Use it for timing. The five-year rate is the better guide.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 9. 11% of San Rafael listings have cut their asking price. Underwrite your exit below asking.
• Competition when you exit — -41%. Homes for sale in San Rafael are down 41% on last year, so your resale faces less competition than today's comps did.

Read how price cuts signal a market turning and how we read these numbers, then run the numbers on a deal.

What is the median home price in San Rafael?

The median asking price in San Rafael is about $1,056,000 as of Sep 2026, down 13.8% from a year ago. This is the asking price on homes listed for sale. Sites that report sold prices or estimated home values will show a different number. Our San Rafael figures cover the 5 ZIP codes with a San Rafael mailing address, which can reach past city limits.

Is San Rafael a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Neither side has the upper hand in San Rafael right now. We compare San Rafael with 2017–2019 at this time of year: 11% of sellers have cut their price, against 16% then; there are 42 pending sales per 100 listings, against 31 then; listings spend 25% more days on the market.

Are San Rafael home prices going up or down?

The median asking price is 25.4% below its May 2020 peak. Per square foot the gap is smaller: 11.6% below the Jul 2022 high. Part of the drop is smaller homes coming to market. Prices are still falling. Waiting has paid off so far. Let listings age, then come back lower.

What price growth should I assume for San Rafael?

Assume -0.4% a year. San Rafael grew 1.8% a year over the decade. Ignore that rate. Most of it landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. Without the boom, San Rafael prices are flat. Assume no growth. Prices fell 9.6% over the last year. Use it for timing. The five-year rate is the better guide.

What is the fair market rent in San Rafael?

HUD's fiscal year 2026 fair market rent for Marin County is $3,604 a month for 2 bedrooms and $4,604 for 3 bedrooms. The figures include tenant-paid utilities and cover the whole county.