Commerce City, Colorado Housing Market

How much can you negotiate in Commerce City?

Only 49 out of every 100 homes for sale have found a buyer. The other 51 are still waiting. Your offer may be the only one on the table. About 1 in 4 sellers has already dropped their price. Each one has learned their first price was too high. Start below their new price, not their old one.

A typical Commerce City home takes 51 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 11% faster than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago. There are 268 homes for sale in Commerce City. That is the most in ten years. It is 10 times the low of Jan 2022. Every one of them competes with the house you want.

What to do about it

• Search Commerce City homes listed 60+ days ago that have already cut their price.
• Offer below the reduced price.
• Keep your inspection and financing contingencies.
• Ask the seller to pay closing costs.
• You can lose a few offers here and still win.

Is now a good time to buy in Commerce City?

Asking prices are 13.8% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller. Commerce City prices rose in only 74 of the last 108 months. This market goes up and down. Timing matters here. Growth will not rescue a bad price.

The discount is already here. It is not getting bigger. Buy now while sellers are still weak. Waiting for a lower price stopped working a year ago.

Who will rent from you in Commerce City?

Only 24 out of every 100 Commerce City households rent. This is an owners' town. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 29 in 100. Just 4.0% of homes sit empty. A well-priced rental fills fast here.

The median Commerce City household earns $104,396 a year. Incomes here have grown 8.2% a year since 2019. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving. A typical home costs 5.1 times the median income. That is the national middle. Neither cash flow nor appreciation is free here. A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,610 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast.

What numbers should you underwrite a Commerce City deal with?

• Price growth to assume — +2.0%/yr. 1 year: -4.5% · 5 years: +2.0% · ten years: +6.0%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Commerce City does without one. Underwrite closer to +2.0%. Measure growth per square foot. Commerce City median list price grew 4.3% a year, but price per square foot grew 6.0%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.
• Months of carrying cost — 2. A typical home takes 51 days to sell. Budget that long when you exit or refinance.
• Odds you cut your price to sell — 1 in 4. About 28% of homes on the Commerce City market right now have already cut their asking price. Assume you are one of them when you sell. Do not underwrite an exit at your asking price.
• Comp on this, not median price — $211/sqft. The typical Commerce City listing shrank from 3,139 to 2,586 sqft since Jul 2016. So median price hides real growth: 79% per sqft versus 52% on the median. Comp on median price and you will overpay for small homes.
• Competition when you exit — +10%. That is how much the number of homes for sale grew in a year. Your resale will face a bigger crowd than today's comps did.
• Price-to-income ratio — 5.1×. A typical home costs 5.1 times the median income. That is the national middle. Neither cash flow nor appreciation is free here. Incomes are rising faster than home prices. Affordability is improving.
• Tenant rent ceiling — $2,610/mo. 30% of the median household income of $104,396. Rents above this line shrink your tenant pool fast.

Is Commerce City a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Yes, if you negotiate. Buyers have the upper hand in Commerce City right now. 0.49 out of every 100 homes for sale have a buyer, 28% of sellers have cut their price, and a typical home takes 51 days to sell.

Are Commerce City home prices going up or down?

Asking prices are 13.8% below their May 2022 peak. You are not buying at the top. Prices stopped falling about a year ago. They are flat now. Waiting will not get you a cheaper house. It might still get you a more motivated seller.

What price growth should I assume for Commerce City?

+2.0%/yr. 1 year: -4.5% · 5 years: +2.0% · ten years: +6.0%. Do not use the ten-year rate. Most of that growth landed in the 2020 and 2021 boom. The five-year rate is what Commerce City does without one. Underwrite closer to +2.0%. Measure growth per square foot. Commerce City median list price grew 4.3% a year, but price per square foot grew 6.0%. The gap is smaller homes, not weaker growth. The house you buy will not shrink. The one-year rate is a timing signal. It is not an underwriting input.

How fast are homes selling in Commerce City?

A typical Commerce City home takes 51 days to find a buyer. Half of them take even longer. That is 11% faster than a year ago. Those sellers are paying to own a house they want to sell. Search for homes listed 60+ days ago.

Is Commerce City a renters' market or an owners' market?

Only 24 out of every 100 Commerce City households rent. This is an owners' town. The renter share is shrinking. Five years ago it was 29 in 100. Just 4.0% of homes sit empty. A well-priced rental fills fast here.

What rent can Commerce City tenants afford?

A tenant on the median income can pay about $2,610 a month. That is the standard 30% affordability line. Rents above it thin your tenant pool fast. The median Commerce City household earns $104,396 a year.